Financial Crisis Survey

How are firms in eastern and central Europe operating in the aftermath of the global financial crisis? Although demand had picked up a bit from the last survey in mid-2009, firms seem to be meeting this demand by running down inventories, not by hiring or expanding operations. And firm indebtedness has worsened.

These and other interesting findings are highlighted in the table below. The results are based on a World Bank survey of 1,686 firms in June and July 2009 and a follow up survey of 1,892 firms in February and March 2010. The first round of surveys covered Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Turkey. Kazakhstan was added in round two. A total of 52 indicators were developed to measure the effects of the crisis on key elements of the private economy: sales, employment, finances, research and development, and expectations about the future.

Over the next few weeks Enterprise Surveys will provide more analysis of what the data shows. A follow up survey is being implemented starting June 2010.

 

Downloads & Resources

Data: Download the financial crisis survey indicators into Excel

Researchers: The survey questionnaire and firm-level data are on the Portal

Papers: Two papers were published based on the first dataset 1 | 2

Crisis response policy briefs

World Bank webpage on the financial crisis

Financial Crisis Survey Indicators

The indicators presented below are computed from the 2nd round of surveys conducted in February and March 2010. Click on [+] to view
indicators from "round 1", covering June/July 2009.
 

Exit Rates

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms that closed 1.3 2.6 2.1 4.2 6.9 4.2 0.4
% of firms that closed + insolvent in financial crisis survey 6.0 6.8 6.4 4.2 14.1 4.5 1.0
% of firms that closed + insolvent in financial crisis survey + impossible to locate 26.8 6.8 6.4 10.1 17.3 21.8 20.1


Sales (compared to previous year)

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms with increased sales 8.8 2.4 21.3 2.3 8.6 9.3 27.9
% of firms with decreased sales 76.7 61.7 50.4 73.8 74.7 73.1 48.4
% of firms with no change in sales 14.5 35.9 28.3 24.0 16.8 17.6 23.7

Sales (compared to FY2007)

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms using less capacity 77.9 31.3 83.8 77.4 81.7 66.1 64.9
Weighted difference in proportion of sales that were domestic -4.5 -4.0 -1.6 -6.0 0.0 -2.9 -11.0
Weighted difference in proportion of sales that were exports -5.6 -7.8 -5.9 1.7 -39.1 -5.4 -6.8

Labor (compared to FY2007)

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms that increased number of temporary workers 13.8 4.1 14.2 21.5 20.0 8.3 86.8
% of firms that decreased number of temporary workers  8.9 16.7 15.8 21.9 19.1 15.8 9.5
% of firms with no change in number of temporary workers 77.3 79.2 69.9 56.6 60.8 75.9 3.8
% of firms that increased number of permanent workers 19.6 25.3 35.1 14.3 16.7 32.9 38.2
% of firms that decreased number of permanent workers 56.8 56.8 50.8 77.3 71.6 61.1 51.6
% of firms with no change in number of permanent workers 23.6 17.8 14.1 8.4 11.7 6.0 10.1

Research and Development (last 12 months vs 2008)

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms that increased spending on R&D 25.5 2.1 25.7 3.3 13.4 15.7 32.0
% of firms that decreased spending on R&D 18.0 6.8 9.7 13.9 35.5 32.6 27.2
% of firms with same spending on R&D 56.4 91.1 64.6 82.8 51.1 51.8 40.9

Expectations

Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms that expect sales to increase a year from now 48.3 9.0 48.6 28.7 39.0 52.5 55.9
% of firms that expect sales to decrease a year from now 22.9 30.7 12.8 36.0 31.6 20.9 16.7
% of firms that expect no change in sales a year from now 28.8 60.3 38.6 35.3 29.4 26.6 27.4
% of firms that expect to increase number of full-time employees 19.2 1.7 19.6 15.4 24.7 16.9 27.9
% of firms that expect to reduce number of full-time employees 8.3 9.3 6.8 20.8 21.7 15.5 12.0
% of firms that expect no change in the number of full-time employees 72.5 89.0 73.6 63.8 53.7 67.6 60.0
% of firms that expect to fall in arrears or delay payments 39.4 9.9 5.3 40.1 40.0 18.7 15.8
% of firms that expect to be unable to repay debt due in 6 months 56.7 81.5 22.8 59.0 28.6 49.9 55.4
% of firms that expect to increase number of temporary employees 10.2 2.2 7.4 14.9 6.0 2.3 18.1
% of firms that expect to reduce number of temporary employees 5.6 2.5 1.4 5.9 1.6 1.2 6.5
% of firms that expect no change in the number of temporary employees 84.2 95.3 91.2 79.2 92.4 96.5 75.5
% of firms that expect to increase R&D spending 25.5 1.7 43.0 1.8 12.6 42.3 50.0
% of firms that expect to decrease R&D spending 8.0 1.7 5.4 10.9 21.8 13.6 12.6
% of firms that expect no change in R&D spending 66.5 96.6 51.6 87.3 65.6 44.1 37.4

Finance

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms delaying payments to tax authorities 61.1 27.5 37.7 55.4 53.9 43.3 43.4
% of firms that restructured liabilities without going to courts in the last year 9.5 14.7 3.1 17.5 18.7 1.8 13.6
% of firms applying for loans in the last year 24.7 3.4 17.7 13.0 17.5 29.0 56.2
Proportion of working capital financed from internal funds 77.6 29.2 49.1 72.8 55.8 89.3 57.8
Proportion of working capital financed from banks 12.3 6.3 9.1 6.4 5.4 10.4 17.3
% of firms overdue on financial obligations in the last year 17.8 14.8 17.4 19.0 29.2 36.2 15.7
% of firms overdue for more than 3 months in the last year 14.7 8.7 5.1 8.2  14.7 10.3 3.4
% of firms that filed for reorganization 1.3 0.7 3.8 16.0 4.7 2.1 10.4
% of firms that were insolvent or filed for bankruptcy 10.5 7.8 10.8 0.7 9.8 0.6 1.3

Finance (compared to last fiscal year)

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms financing a higher proportion of working capital from internal funds or retained earnings 16.4 4.6 15.4 15.6 15.6 16.9 26.2
% of firms financing a lower proportion of working capital from internal funds or retained earnings  12.6 8.7 17.6 15.9 14.8 10.7 30.9
% of firms financing the same proportion of working capital from internal funds or retained earnings 71.0 86.7 66.9 68.5 69.6 72.4 42.9


Overall Business Situation and Effects

  Bulgaria Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Romania Turkey
% of firms reporting overall situation improved compared to 6 months ago 5.6 1.6 21.0 14.3 13.8 12.0 32.4
% of firms reporting overall situation worsened compared to 6 months ago 56.2 36.8 37.7 57.1 67.4 53.7 27.8
% of firms reporting overall situation remained the same compared to 6 months ago 38.2 61.6 41.3 28.7 18.9 34.4 39.9
% of firms reporting main effect is increase in debt level - - - - - - -
% of firms reporting main effect is increase in input cost - - - - - - -
% of firms reporting main effect is reduce access to credit - - - - - - -
% of firms reporting main effect is drop in demand for its products or services - - - - - - -
% of firms main effect is "other" - - - - - - -